The Aftermath #1: Qatar brilliance from Bagnaia, Michelin saga resolved, and Marquez is back!
Here are the main talking points from last weekend’s 2024 Qatar Grand Prix.
Shehryar Bin Shahid 12th March 2024
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After a decisive win from Bagnaia last Sunday, he was able to reposition himself as a championship favorite once again after putting behind a challenging Saturday Sprint.
It mimicked the same script from last year, where Martin won in the Sprints whereas Bagnaia did his damage on Sundays. So how has the Italian been able to flip the script after looking vulnerable in the sprints, where he was looking backwards rather than forwards?
1- Bagnaia is a ‘Sunday-maestro’
The race-centric approach to a weekend has become a trademark of the reigning world champion, who focuses entirely on managing a good race rhythm.
Usually, riders focus on extracting more pace from their bikes in the practice sessions, in order to get themselves in higher positions for qualifying and then translating that pace in the Sprint race.
For Bagnaia, it is usually the other way around, where he spends most of his practice sessions in lower positions, focusing on his race rhythm on a heavier fuel tank. Throughout the weekend, Francesco Bagnaia was not seen higher than fourth place in all of the practice sessions, which is a testament to Bagnaia’s focus on race trim.
Sprints, self-admittingly, have been a weakness for Bagnaia where he tends to lose the most points, especially against his chief championship rival, Jorge Martin, who wears the crown as the undisputed ‘Sprint king’. The last time Bagnaia beat Martin in a sprint race was back in the Catalunya round last year, which was nine rounds ago!
Furthermore, the thing that impresses me the most about Bagnaia is his ability to make excellent reads from the sprint race and then translating those reads into the main race.
This was so telling from last weekend’s race, where after suffering from a major tire drop in the Sprint race, Bagnaia knew that pushing hard on the tires for the duration of the race, would make things complicated in the later laps.
He also knew that engaging in exchanges mid-pack (like he was in the Sprint) would result in him losing more of his precious tire performance.
So he deduced his race-winning strategy to both race management and positional awareness, meaning a Dovi-esque approach would be needed, which is ‘to get into the lead as early as possible and then manage the race from the front.’
This does not mean putting in blistering laps to stretch the field, but to keep managing the lap times relative to the rider behind.
“It was very important after yesterday to change the strategy in the first lap,” said the Italian. “I just tried to be more aggressive, and I knew if I was leading already in the first laps, my potential was good enough to manage the gap.”
“For sure, the Sprint [race] of yesterday was a good lesson to change the approach [for the race] to find performance with the new bike.”
Pecco also maintained a staggering consistency of having every lap within 0.3 seconds.
“The potential was to go faster,” explained Bagnaia. “The bike was able to do 1m 52.2s, 52.1s, but it wasn’t useful because a lap like that could compromise everything. So I just tried to be as consistent as possible.”
2- Last year’s Tyre saga finally debunked:
Last year saw Jorge Martin win the Saturday Sprint race in a statement-making fashion, but in the main race, he could only salvage tenth place, fifteen seconds down on winner Fabio Digiannantonio.
This stark performance within a space of a day made everyone believe that it might’ve been a dud tire that could’ve caused the issue and ultimately decided the championship in favor of Bagnaia.
Even Martin felt that Michelin ‘stole’ the championship from him as he possibly couldn’t forget to ride in just one day.
“I lost 1.5s of pace in one day,” said Jorge Martin. “I think I didn’t forget to ride and I think they need to improve and they need to analyze so it doesn’t happen again in the future.”
Michelin came to their defense after inspecting Jorge Martin’s tires and claimed that there were no manufacturing problems with the compound.
But with one more race taking place in Qatar since then, we can safely conclude that it wasn’t the inconsistency from Michelins that might’ve caused such issues (Of course the nature of the Michelin tires might have doubled down on the issue).
Let’s not forget that last year, the Lusail International Circuit was resurfaced, and the newer track surface promised more grip. This meant that riders could now push from the very first lap unlike years before, where it took them several laps to heat up the tires in the cold and slippery layout. Before resurfacing, the lap time variation would usually be around 1 – 1.5s from the rider’s earliest laps to their best laps, which would be achieved much later on.
However, with the new asphalt, riders were able to get the tires working in an optimal window from the get-go. But one downside to the new surface is that, unlike years before, it is a bit more abrasive.
“I just had two laps when I did 1m 52.0s, 52.1s, and after these two laps I started to have problems with the rear tire,” said Francesco Bagnaia when he pushed his tires in the Sprint race.
“So the key was to be more calm on the rear, just trying to be more smooth on everything.”
So with an abrasive new surface plus spinning up the rear tires at the start, along with a desperate attempt to regain lost positions, it’s highly likely that Martin might’ve burnt up his rear tire in the earlier laps.
3- KTMs are super close!
This year, it looks like the KTMs are much closer to the Desmosedici GP24 on pace. Binder was able to qualify really well and fought for the win in both the Sprint and the race whereas rookie Pedro Acosta was making moves left, right, and center before his tires went limp.
In terms of pace, the Austrian marque looks second best but they do crucially fill the slightest of performance gaps that we thought might exist between the GP24 and GP23 Ducatis.
Qatar was also one of the few races where KTM struggled last year, with Binder finishing fifth, 7.1s down on the race winner. This year he was only 1.3s from the top and very much in the mix. Thus showing the obvious improvements made by the KTM this season.
Based on the preseason tests and the first weekend of racing, KTMs look like they will mount a strong challenge for the 2024 crown. With more favorable tracks on the horizon, they will look to break their streak of non-wins as early as possible.
4- Marc Marquez is back and he will only go up
Marc Marquez is back with some serious speed at a track where he usually struggles. He was also comfortably the fastest rider aboard the GP23.
To finish his first weekend aboard a new machine only 3.4s down on the leader will only serve as a massive confidence boost for the eight-time world champion.
Will he challenge for wins, podiums, and maybe even a championship on a regular basis? It sure looks like it, but we need to see if he can hang in with Bagnaia and Martin after a few rounds.
But with such a strong start, it looks like he will continue to learn on his GP23, and his trajectory will only be upward.
5- Aprilia drops the ball again! But overheating issues still persist
After the sprint, everyone was excited to see if Aprilia could have a go for the win on Sunday, especially with their late race-pace, but after just one lap, all their hopes evaporated.
It was another bad start from Aleix Espargaro which dropped him to ninth place from the front row on the grid. Since then, Aleix Espargaro struggled to overtake riders up ahead due to lacking top speed as he battled with the GP23 of Fabio Digiannantonio.
Aprilia needs to sort out their starts plus a plethora of mechanical issues that only they suffered during the Qatar Grand Prix weekend, with Vinales’s bike giving up in FP2, and Raul Fernandez’s bike giving up twice in the race. Fernandez’s bike also went up in flames in daytime FP2 after he crashed on turn 11.
Having the best aero among the current crop of bikes is good and all, but not finishing due to technical problems is going to worry the Italian manufacturer a lot over the course of 2024.
Also, the lack of top speed of Aprilia makes it very much less potent unless its competitors are facing tire issues, so this is another area that Aprilia needs to work upon.
“It was clear during this race that we need more power, especially for the starts, and the long straights, to avoid being overtaken,” said Aleix Espargaro about his Aprilia.
6- Better start for Bastianini but he will need more to retain his seat for 2025
Enea Bastianini finished sixth and fifth, respectively, in the sprint and race, and was able to qualify on the front row, but his main competitors, Jorge Martin and Marc Marquez, finished ahead in both races which will amp up the pressure on the Italian for the 2025 factory seat.
The Italian looked very confident with his new GP24 going into the season and looked like the closest competitor to Bagnaia after the preseason tests but come race day, he was easily beaten by both GP24s of Bagnaia and Martin and also fell short of the GP23 of Marc Marquez.
In the later laps, the man from Rimini came under increasing pressure from Alex Marquez but was able to fend off the Spaniard to the finish line.
‘The Beast’ will need to up his pace if he is to retain his seat in 2025.
7- Disappointing no show from Yamaha and Honda
Unfortunately for the Japanese giants, it looks like a repeat of last year, with both manufacturers at the tail end of the grid. Fabio Quartararo and Johann Zarco were the main protagonists from their respective manufacturers, and both finished next to each other in 11th and 12th, respectively.
Fabio Quartararo was 17.7s down on Francesco Bagnaia at the finish line and his best lap time of 1m 53.468 was a whopping 0.811s slower than the fastest lap of the race, which was set by Pedro Acosta.
With such a pace deficit, Yamaha looks to be ‘further than ever’ compared to the leaders.
When asked if this was the worst bike he had ever ridden, Quartararo replied: “Compared to how the level is right now, I would say yes.”
For Honda, there were slight positives, as we did not see many crashes throughout the weekend, and the general feeling from the Honda camp is that they have made some improvements to the bike and have caught up to Yamaha.
“We made a great race, honestly,” said Joan Mir. “I started well and recovered a lot of positions straight away. It’s been a long time since I was able to enjoy riding like that, so that is really positive.”
“Starting at the back isn’t easy, but we made good ground to be with Fabio for most of the race. In the last five laps I felt like I had a little bit more than Quartararo, so I overtook him and made a gap of one second.”
“Then in the last two laps we dropped a lot, and we lost some positions, which isn’t ideal. But still we are pleased with everything we have done and always learning.”
