MotoGP Qatar Test Autopsy: Are Aprilia the fastest?
Reigning world champion Francesco Bagnaia looked a step above the rest of the field, as he was the only rider to go under the 1m 51s lap time, but are there any other contenders that we should be on a look out for? Will there be another manufacturer that will put up a fight with the Ducatis? We will take a deeper look into the laps to find out…
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Preseason testing is now officially over and after seeing a few glimpses of what each team is capable of we can make some conclusions. But again we must take testing with a pinch of salt as it isn’t always accurate. Infact, in recent years, it’s proven more to be a fad if anything.
Just take last year’s preseason for instance, we had the KTMs besting a 9th place finish in Portugal test right before the inaugural race of the season in that same venue suggesting an eerily difficult season ahead for the Austrian marque – but in reality they finished second in the championship.
An opposite of this happened for Honda and Suzuki in 2022, when they looked like the ones to beat after a dominant preseason showing only to slot in last and second last in the championship respectively.
Again – take preseason test with a pinch of salt.
But one thing is for sure, the MotoGP field is almost a second faster than what it was last year.
In qualifying trim, Francesco Bagnaia was able to clock in 1m50,9s which is 0.8 seconds faster than his pole position lap from last year. Furthermore, Jorge Martin’s Sprint win averaged at 1’53.5s but this year’s best sprint pace is expected to be 1 – 1.5seconds faster.
Race pace wise, the fastest rider this year was able to clock-in an average of 1’53.2s, which is even faster than Martin’s sprint average from last year – let alone Digiannantonio’s race win average.
All this, ultimately leaves comparisons to last year’s data sheet quite redundant. But there are some trends that we can observe. Starting off with the qualifying speed.
Qualifying: Desmosedici GP24 is the class of the field…
If there was a definite statement to be made from preseason testing, it is that the GP24 is undoubtedly the fastest bike in qualifying trims and that was demonstrated with the GP24s topping EVERY SINGLE day of testing.
Then we have the Aprilias and year-old Ducatis, followed by KTMs, Yamahas and then the Hondas. Interestingly in both the testing venues, Aleix Espargaro was the lead non-Ducati rider.
Sprints are a different story…
Now you might think that just because GP24s were fastest in the ‘qualifying’ trims, they would also be faster in the sprint runs. Well, it isn’t as simple as that.
In the sprint runs, the fastest with somewhat of a margin was Aleix Espargaro, who averaged at 1m 52.106 – which is 0.303 seconds faster than Bagnaia’s seven lap run average of 1’52.429, placing him in second.
Furthermore, the Aprilia of Aleix Espargaro experienced little to no drop in his seven lap run, whereas others experienced some drop off. His last lap of the run was a 1’52.039 which is less than a tenth slower than his best lap from that run which is a 1’51.93.
Bastianini and this time Fabio Digiannantonio’s runs were neck and neck with Bagnaia. I would even argue that their pace was even more impressive as both completed full Sprint runs.
Last year’s sprint winner Jorge Martin had the fifth fastest sprint run averaging at 1m 52.6s. The Martinator did complain of chatter problems in his run but he will have a full weekend to rectify this issue.
| Aleix Esparagaro's 7 lap run | Pecco Bagnaia's 7 lap run | Fabio Digiannantonio's 11 lap run | Enea Bastianini's 10 lap run | Jorge Martin's 6 lap run |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1'52.293 | 1'52.450 | 1'52.587 | 1'52.165 | 1'52.530 |
| 1'52.158 | 1'51.850 | 1'52.638 | 1'52.016 | 1'52.327 |
| 1'51.964 | 1'52.069 | 1'52.320 | 1'52.213 | 1'52.500 |
| 1'51.931 | 1'52.528 | 1'52.467 | 1'52.438 | 1'53.733 |
| 1'52.344 | 1'52.381 | 1'52.496 | 1'52.536 | 1'52.746 |
| 1'52.014 | 1'52.468 | 1'52.442 | 1'52.798 | 1'52.648 |
| 1'52.039 | 1'53.262 | 1'52.391 | 1'52.550 | |
| 1'52.429 | 1'52.879 | |||
| 1'52.603 | 1'53.045 | |||
| 1'53.020 | 1'52.771 | |||
| 1'52.472 | ||||
| Avg: 1'52.106 | Avg: 1'52.429 | Avg: 1'52.533 | Avg: 1'52.5411 | Avg: 1'52.747 |
Race pace: Not much data from Ducati, but who wins the KTM vs Aprilia battle?
Now this one was difficult to measure as we don’t have information regarding tyre usage for multiple runs. And apart from a few exceptions, most riders didn’t exactly string together ‘full race distance’ laps.
But lucky for us, among those exceptions were the KTM of Brad Binder and Aprilia’s Maverick Vinales. Their race runs would give us clearer information regarding Aprilia’s comparison to the KTMs.
Brad Binder completed a full race distance of 22 laps and averaged at 1’53.219.
Maverick Vinales on the other hand despite doing 17 laps in a row, averaged at 1’53.055. Which would suggest that both the manufacturers are on the same page with regards to race pace.
But on closer look, Vinales’s run had three off laps, which would average his 14 lap run to 1’52.954. In comparison, Binder’s run had no such issues.
And again on closer inspection, you’ll notice that Vinales’s pace almost never dropped off.
So, barring Ducati’s race pace, Aprilia looks to be better than the KTM on paper.
Obviously, the two might be on different fuel loads, but it was still an interesting peek nonetheless.
Based on the Qatar test, Aprilia’s chances do look good! Their qualifying and sprint pace seems to have improved and their racepace looks steady – with little to no drop off.
Now, would I say they are a sure bet to win at Qatar – I’m not so sure.
Because when the lights go out, it’s always different, ESPECIALLY when you are in Aprilia. I mean god knows how many times the Aprilias have been mugged off the line. But overall, I’m impressed by Aprilia’s speed and consistency.
| Brad Binder's Full race run | Maverick Vinales's Full race run (Almost) |
|---|---|
| 1'53.292 | 1'53.644 |
| 1'52.995 | 1'52.865 |
| 1'52.995 | 1'52.810 |
| 1'52.979 | 1'52.743 |
| 1'53.342 | 1'52.780 |
| 1'53.307 | 1'53.364 |
| 1'53.130 | 1'53.004 |
| 1'53.202 | 1'52.936 |
| 1'52.859 | 1'53.064 |
| 1'53.216 | 1'52.906 |
| 1'53.301 | 1'54.413 |
| 1'53.133 | 1'52.710 |
| 1'53.088 | 1'52.747 |
| 1'53.197 | 1'52.934 |
| 1'53.345 | 1'52.905 |
| 1'53.268 | 1'54.557 |
| 1'53.317 | 1'56.098 |
| 1'53.389 | |
| 1'53.395 | |
| 1'53.200 | |
| 1'53.457 | |
| 1'53.432 | |
| Avg: 1'53.219 | Avg: 1'53.055 |
Comparing the three GP24s:
Now unlike previous Ducatis, the GP24 looks to be much more oriented to meet the requirements of all three of its riders (Morbidelli obviously isn’t included).
This is great news especially for Enea Bastianini who looks to be reinvigorated since he touched the GP24. The Italian was the closest rider to Pecco in Qatar test on one lap pace and averaged a remarkable 1’m 52.5s for his sprint in Qatar, which is as good of a run as anyone did on a Ducati. Meaning, unlike last year we will have all three GP24s with a shout at the title.
Francesco Bagnaia obviously looks in stunning form but more so this year. If anything was missing from the Italian’s arsenal last year was his inability to compete with Jorge Martin on Sprint runs but for this year, he looks to have that weakness covered.
Lastly, Jorge Martin is expected to be a main contender this year but if preseason tests are to go by, then the Spaniard looks to be in a very similar situation to where he was at the end of last year – minus the Qatar sprint advantage because, Pecco and Bestia’s sprint runs were way more impressive.
| Pecco Bagnaia's 7 lap run | Enea Bastianini's 10 lap run | Jorge Martin's 6 lap run |
|---|---|---|
| 1'52.450 | 1'52.165 | 1'52.530 |
| 1'51.850 | 1'52.016 | 1'52.327 |
| 1'52.069 | 1'52.213 | 1'52.500 |
| 1'52.528 | 1'52.438 | 1'53.733 |
| 1'52.381 | 1'52.536 | 1'52.746 |
| 1'52.468 | 1'52.798 | 1'52.648 |
| 1'53.262 | 1'52.550 | |
| 1'52.879 | ||
| 1'53.045 | ||
| 1'52.771 | ||
| Avg: 1'52.429 | Avg: 1'52.5411 | Avg: 1'52.747 |
Fabio Digiannantonio is the fastest amongst the GP23s
Sorry Marquez stans, but the reality is Fabio Digiannantonio is just better – as of now.
In Qatar, Marc Marquez didn’t exactly put in a competitive string of laps. His best effort only lasted three laps. It was clear that Marquez’s main focus on day 2 was on finding one lap pace, something he did address as his biggest weakness currently.
Marc Marquez however did end the test as the fastest amongst the GP23 machines but we are yet to see his sprint and race capabilities as he didn’t string many laps together.
That leaves Digiannantonio and Bezzecchi as the best among the GP23 and Diggia looked noticeably better than Bezzecchi in the two day Qatar test.
In Sprints, the #49 averaged at 1’52.533 with his eleven lap run, whereas Bezzecchi averaged at 1’52.950 in his nine lap run. On their qualifying runs, it was Diggia who held the lead in both day 1 and day 2.
So although Marc Marquez may be faster currently in the qualifying effort, it’s the sprint and race rhythm where Diggia and Bezz are expected to be faster.
| Fabio Digiannantonio's 11 lap run | Marco Bezzecchi's 9 lap run |
|---|---|
| 1'52.587 | 1'53.015 |
| 1'52.638 | 1'52.575 |
| 1'52.320 | 1'52.657 |
| 1'52.467 | 1'52.889 |
| 1'52.496 | 1'53.140 |
| 1'52.442 | 1'53.132 |
| 1'52.391 | 1'52.973 |
| 1'52.429 | 1'53.091 |
| 1'52.603 | 1'53.086 |
| 1'53.020 | |
| 1'52.472 | |
| Avg: 1'52.533 | Avg: 1'52.950 |
To conclude, this was just a fun sneak peek at the data sheet, all theoretical of course . So nothing too serious. And we will get a true picture of what the season will look like once the lights go out.
